Sam Berridge on LinkedIn: #gas #energytransition #costofliving | 11 comments (2024)

It’s time we realised the decentralization of energy generation is a very expensive mistake. There are few industries which enjoy economies of scale like power generation. The bigger, the better. Power from a portable petrol generator costs around $0.45/kWhr, which drops by an order of magnitude to around $0.04/kWh by the time you scale up to a 500MW coal turbine. Solar panels on houses are installed at sub-optimal angles and often under partial shade such that on average they achieve around half of the ~25% capacity utilisation achieved by commercial solar. If it wasn’t for the government kicking in a few thousand for each roof top solar installation, the overwhelming majority wouldn’t exist. So we come to batteries. Which Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)'s plan for the grid requires all of us to buy ourselves, and then hand control over to the regulator to operate for the benefit of the grid stability, rather than return on our investment. That domestic batteries are roughly double the cost of commercial batteries per kWh of storage highlights again, these should be commercial systems, paid for and operated by someone else. But if you want to see what’s possible in the commercial world of energy storage, look no further than the CANDU fuel bundle. These bad boys, about the size of a lump of firewood, will produce enough power to run your house for 100 years, rain, hail or shine. With no need for recharging, 10,000km's of extra transmission, or back up generation. So how did decentralized power become the solution de jour? The same way anything that requires consumers to spend a lot of money does, self-interested companies, individuals and faux environmentalists promoted it. #nuclear #batteries #energystorage #energytransition

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Can you think of another product or service, which was promoted as lowest-cost, but required substantial government subsidies to be financially viable? It seems Australia will continue to follow in Germany's footsteps... "The state hasestimatedit will pay as much as €20 billion ($21.8 billion) to wind and solar operators through the end of this year, twice what grid operators had forecast in October." - Bloomberg News #energytransitionhttps://lnkd.in/gXnyimaB

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At the moment the only entity contributing to net-employment is the government. Private sector employment is dead...

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The higher-for-longer outlook for US rates has been starting to wobble for just over a month now. US unemployment has been ticking up, consumer sentiment rolling over, the culmination of which has been a tick up in the number of rate-cuts expected this year (bottom left chart). The soft CPI data last night all but confirmed a rate cut in September. Another outcome of this is the rolling over of US 10yr rates, which for the last couple of years has corresponded with rallies in the #gold price (right chart). Looks like we're at the start of another one of those rallies right now.

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Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) putting on a brave face with regard to the declining gas storage levels at Iona: https://lnkd.in/gEKNPcAEAs reported by Colin Packham, a spokesman for AEMO said: “...Since the (risk to supply notice), the outlook for the gas storage inventory has remained steady, thanks in part to milder weather conditions and an observed reduction in gas-powered generation demand.”Hmm... Chart of Iona gas levels below. You make your own mind up how steady it is. Keeping in mind that Longford capacity is 30% lower than the last time Iona storage drew down this fast. As I type, it's looks like there's about 600MW of coal generation offline in Victoria, which is leading to a run up in gas prices, even though it's windy. The whole system looks like it's hanging by a thread. #gas #energytransition

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Excellent video Zoe Hilton. Recommend spending 5min to watch this. The data is accurate and the logic is sound. The sum of which is a very easy to understand rational why the rest of the world is pivoting towards nuclear to varying extents. Smart Energy CouncilClean Energy CouncilClimate CouncilInstitute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA)#energytransition

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In an sector in which fully permitted, organic growth is as rare as hen’s teeth, 40% production growth year on year, for the next two years stands out. Looking forward to the journey to 150koz pa Ora Banda Mining Ltd

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Australian focussed asset allocators will have to think a little harder about their means of resources exposure in the years ahead. The ASX 200 Resources index is dominated by iron ore. To the extent that iron ore is the dominant source of earnings for 57.2% of that index, as of this morning.#ironore #commodities #investing #energytransition

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Food for thought...

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