Happy midweek, everyone! We're officially just two weeks away from the dawn of the 2023 playoffs. John Breech is taking the day to absorb that crazy fact, so you've got me, Cody Benjamin, to deliver all the latest from around the league.
This is the Pick Six newsletter. Now let's get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you'resigned up to receive this newsletter every day! You don't want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around theNFL.)
We've got Week 17 predictions, playoff forecasts, MVP buzz and much more:
1. Today's show: Debating Prisco's Power Rankings
Pete Prisco, Ryan Wilson and John Breech joined Will Brinson on the latest "Pick Six NFL Podcast" to dissect and debate Prisco's latest Power Rankings, where the Ravens have overtaken the 49ers as the No. 1 team in the league.
Some highlights:
- Why does Lamar Jackson deserve MVP buzz as Baltimore makes its case as the NFL's team to beat? "He's not putting up gaudy numbers," Prisco explains. "He's just playing really good football with a good defense. The offense fits him perfectly."
- Brinson isn't ruling out Josh Allen and the Bills as late-year candidates to steal the AFC's thunder. "If they finish with two strong games and win the division," he argues, "Josh Allen could be MVP."
- Two other clubs on the rise as the season winds down: the Buccaneers, who jumped six spots in Prisco's rankings while staying atop the NFC South; and the Rams, who have a sneaky MVP candidate in Matthew Stafford, according to Brinson.
Catch the full episode (and subscribe for all kinds of daily NFL talk) right here.
2. Prisco's Picks: Cowboys down Lions, Ravens edge Dolphins
Pete Prisco is up to 146-94 making straight-up predictions this year. Now he's back with picks for every single Week 17 contest. Here's a trio of his most notable projections, including a rebound for America's Team:
- Cowboys 31, Lions 23:The Cowboys have lost two straight, but they are in the playoffs. The Lions clinched the division last week, but are playing for seeding. Detroit is playing consecutive road games, while Dallas is home for the first time in three weeks. Look for the Cowboys to get back on track after two losses with an impressive game for both offense and the defense.
- Ravens 28, Dolphins 27:This is the game of the week and could decide the top seed in the AFC and the MVP betweenTua TagovailoaandLamar Jackson. The Ravens have blown out a bunch of good teams, but that won't be the case here. Miami will hang around in this one, but I think in the end the Ravens defense will be the difference with a late stop.
- Seahawks 29, Steelers 27:This is a playoff game of sorts for these two. The Seahawks are coming off a nice comeback victory over the Titans, while the Steelers handled theBengalsinMason Rudolph'sfirst start. This will be a lot tougher on the road for Rudolph, but the Steelers will hang around. In the end, I thinkGeno Smithwill make enough plays to win it late for Seattle like he did in last week's game.
3. Playoff projections: Bills, Rams among top wild-card contenders
Every week, John Breech compiles SportsLine's latest simulations to forecast the entire playoff picture. And with just two weeks to go in the regular season, things are really starting to take shape, even in such a crowded wild-card race. Here are two of SportsLine's safest bets to claim one of the final postseason spots in each conference:
- Bills:The Bills (9-6) might be the most intriguing team in the projection. If they win out, not only are they guaranteed to get a wild-card spot, but they could also end up as the AFC East champion. If that happens, that means that Bills would get at least one playoff home game in January. Remaining games: vs. Patriots, at Dolphins
- Rams:The 49ers' loss on Christmas actually hurt the Rams (8-7), and that's because it pretty much guarantees that San Francisco will have something to play for when these two teams meet up in Week 18. The good news for the Rams is that they can lose that game and still get in, and that's exactly what the computer thinks is going to happen. The Rams have a 64.8% chance of making the playoffs, which is way ahead of the next-closest contender, which is the Packers at 28.3%.Remaining schedule:at Giants, vs. 49ers
4. Injury, lineup updates: Wilson out for Jets, another Vikings swap
Some important depth-chart changes to monitor as we enter Week 17:
- Vikings could bench Nick Mullens: Next up at QB may be Jaren Hall, or Josh Dobbs (again)
- T.J. Hockenson out for season with knee injury: The Vikings TE tore his ACL and MCL against the Lions on Sunday
- Zach Wilson ruled out: Trevor Siemian will start for the Jets' injured QB against the Browns Thursday
- Steelers add former Pro Bowl LB: Jaylon Smith gives them insurance for a last-gasp playoff push
5. What's wrong with the Chiefs? Examining K.C.'s problems
The Chiefs are 9-6, two games ahead of the next-place teams in the AFC West, bound for yet another playoff appearance under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Yet nothing feels quite right with the reigning Super Bowl champions. Fresh off an ugly loss to the rival Raiders, the perennial contenders appear to be a shell of their typical selves. What exactly is ailing them?
Chris Trapasso explored that very question, and one of his takeaways might surprise you: Mahomes, the reigning NFL MVP, has had just as much of a hand in K.C.'s offensive woes as the pieces around him.
Starting in Week 8, the two-time Super-Bowl winning quarterback has 12 big-time throws to 11 turnover-worthy plays, including a whopping five (the most in a single game in his career to date) in the Christmas Day defeat at the hands of the Raiders. On the season, Mahomes' BTT rate is 3.8%, which is tied for 23rd among passers. And there are 20 qualifying quarterbacks with TWP rates lower than his current 3.1%. ... Yes, drops have been a problem for the Chiefs all season. But they're hardly happening at an unprecedented clip. Mahomes has dealt with a drop rate of 6.9%, tied for the 13th highest in football. (So) Mahomes has endured the most drops in the NFL, but he's also thrown the most passes (568) entering Week 16 -- a prime example as to why rate statistics are usually more informative than counting statistics.
6. Race for the No. 1 pick: Bears, Cardinals are leading candidates
Jordan Dajani has collected SportsLine's latest simulations to forecast the team destined to hold the top selection in the 2024 draft. And while Justin Fields has certainly flashed to keep Chicago competitive, this won't quiet rumors of the Bears eyeing a QB reset:
According to SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh, the Bears (via the Panthers), have a 95.5% chance to win that No. 1 overall pick in the 2024NFL Draft. Who else could challenge Chicago? TheArizona Cardinalshave a 4.4% chance, while the rest of theNFLhas a 0.1% chance. Carolina currently sits at 2-13, while Arizona is 3-12. The Panthers finish out the season with theJacksonville Jaguarsin Florida this weekend, and then play at home vs. theTampa Bay Buccaneers. As for the Cardinals, they pay a visit to thePhiladelphia Eaglesthis week, then wrap up the season at home vs. the rivalSeattle Seahawks.
