2021 NFL odds, lines, picks: Expert predictions for the Week 4 including Bucs at Patriots and Steelers at Packers (2024)

Three weeks into the NFL season, we’re already starting to see some separation at the top of the league. Dare we call them Super Bowl favorites? Maybe give it a few more games. Matthew Stafford and the Rams made a statement in the NFC with a 34-24 win over Tampa Bay, while the AFC West has a pair of unbeaten teams, and neither is from Kansas City. Then there are the Bills, who have scored 78 points in two weeks since dropping their opener.

Week 4 features a handful of divisional games, including a matchup of unbeaten teams between the Rams and Cardinals. Tom Brady also returns to New England on Sunday night (you may hear about this throughout the week) before the Chargers and Raiders square off on Monday night. Below are the lines for every matchup. Be sure to also keep up with all news and analysis from The Athletic’s NFL reporters.

Before we move ahead, let’s take a quick look at last week’s betting trends and results:

• It was another excellent week for underdogs, going 9-7 against the spread. Seven of those underdogs won outright.
• The Chargers (+7) were the biggest long shot to win, but Los Angeles topped the Chiefs 30-24 in Kansas City. The next closest outright winners were the Saints, Falcons and Bengals, all closing last week at +2.5.
• Eleven (!) of 16 points totals went under, as 12 teams scored fewer than 20 points. The Broncos shut out the Jets while Chicago failed to score a touchdown against the Browns.
• The worst beats of last week are brought to you by various kickers from around the league:
  • Tristan Vizcaino missed an extra point following the Chargers’ go-ahead touchdown at Kansas City. Los Angeles held on for the win, but the missed kick ended the game with 54 points on a 54.5 total.
  • Josh Lambo was off on two PAT attempts in the Jaguars’ 31-19 loss to the Cardinals. Jacksonville couldn’t have covered either with those kicks, but Lambo’s inaccuracy kept the point total at 50, with the total set at 51.5.
  • And finally, just when the Lions thought they’d done enough for their first win, Justin Tucker set an NFL record with a 66-yard field goal as time expired to lift the Ravens over Detroit, 19-17. Credit the Lions, they covered again as heavy underdogs after scoring 10 points in the final 8:16 of the game. But they were also huge moneyline underdogs. Like Detroit, those bettors were on the wrong side of history here.

Note: Expert picks are straight up, not against the spread. If you’re looking for ATS picks, here’s Sheil Kapadia’s picks, Vic Tafur’s picks, Ethan Douglas’ projection model and more.

All times Eastern.Click here for live odds. Odds updated at 9 a.m. Sunday.

Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons – 1 p.m. Sunday

After Ryan Fitzpatrick went down, who’d have thought the bigger concern in Washington would be its defense? Only one team has conceded more yards than the Football Team in three weeks. It allows 432 yards and 30. 7 points per game as 59.4 percent of their opponent’s drives end with points. Washington lost 43-21 to Buffalo last week, having no answer for Josh Allen while the Football Team offense mustered 13 first downs and recorded three turnovers. WFT opened as slight favorites at the Falcons but have not yet won against the spread this season.

Atlanta is no longer winless, scoring on its final two drives to beat the Giants, 17-14. It was not a pretty display of football as the Falcons were held to 296 yards, with almost half of that coming on their last two possessions. Matt Ryan threw a pair of touchdown passes and led his 39th career game-winning drive. Defensively, Atlanta gave up a season-low 14 points, allowed 346 yards and forced a takeaway for the second consecutive week.

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills – 1 p.m. Sunday

The Bills appear to be in midseason form after rolling Washington 43-21. Buffalo outscored opponents 78-21 the past two weeks after losing its opener. Josh Allen broke out for a five-touchdown game, and the defense is humming, too, after recording its second-straight game with three turnovers. The Bills are averaging 31.3 points per game while ranking top five in points allowed, passing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed. That’s a championship-caliber combination if sustained. Buffalo opened as 16.5-point favorites against the Texans this week, the largest opening spread in the NFL this year.

Houston has closed no better than an eight-point underdog in each of the previous two weeks. The Texans dropped to 1-2 after a 24-9 loss to the Panthers last Thursday. After scoring 37 points in its opener, Houston has 30 total in the two weeks since. Davis Mills put together a decent first start, going 19-of-28 for 168 yards and a touchdown. The run game did him zero favors, adding 42 yards on the ground. Houston’s defense let up a season-high 407 yards and finished without a turnover for the first time this year. Without running the ball effectively, it’s going to be tough for Houston to keep its defense fresh against a potent Buffalo offense.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears – 1 p.m. Sunday

The Justin Fields era is off to an unceremonious start after the Bears lost 26-6 in his first career start. Chicago’s rookie quarterback was sacked nine times, and the offense could only put together 47 total yards. It’s now scored 40 points in three weeks. The defense wasn’t much better, surrendering a season-worst 418 yards to the Browns, with 215 of it on the ground. Yet, for the second time this year, Chicago is favored a week after getting blown out. The Bears opened as 3.5-point favorites at home against the Lions.

Detroit’s streak of allowing 30 or more points ended last week, but it wasn’t enough to get in the win column. The Lions scored 10 points in the final 8:16 to take a 17-16 lead against Baltimore before Lamar Jackson converted a fourth-and-19, and Justin Tucker set the NFL record with a 66-yard field goal as time expired. Detroit covered, but it was a bad beat for anyone who had the Lions’ moneyline. The Bears’ anemic offense should give the Lions a chance to earn their first win.

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys – 1 p.m. Sunday

Dallas rolled to 2-1 on the year with a decisive 41-21 victory over NFC East rival Philadelphia. The Cowboys exploited a porous run defense with 160 yards on the ground. Ezekiel Elliott rushed for a pair of touchdowns while Dak Prescott threw for three scores. Dallas put together a complete game on both sides of the ball, scoring a season-best 41 points and limiting what had been a potent ground game for the Eagles to 64 yards. The Cowboys will look to build on this momentum against Carolina. Dallas opened as four-point favorites, and the line moved to five after Monday’s victory.

The Panthers are off to their best start in six years, but at what cost? They beat the Texans 24-9 last week, though Christian McCaffrey could now miss some time with a hamstring injury and 2021 first-round pick Jaycee Horn doesn’t have a timetable to return after breaking bones in his foot. The absence of McCaffrey will put a lot more of the offensive weight on Sam Darnold, who has a pair of 300-yard games this season. Horn has started every week for a defense that allows 10 points per game and is among the league’s best at stopping the pass. It is worth noting that Carolina is also 3-0 against the spread and already won outright once as an underdog.

Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins – 1 p.m. Sunday

The Dolphins had season-highs of 28 points and 330 yards last week. That’s the good news. Their offense produced 133 rushing yards and didn’t turn the ball over while the defense extended its takeaway streak to 25 games. Now for the bad news, they still lost and gave up almost 500 yards in a 31-28 loss to the Raiders. It almost seems like Miami lacks an identity at this point. They’ll need to figure it out fast or run the risk of getting left behind. The Dolphins opened as favorites for the first time this season heading into a matchup with the winless Colts.

Indianapolis was a playoff team last year. Now, the current focus is on winning a game. The defense has done its part, forcing six turnovers in three weeks. But the offense looks lost, averaging 18.7 points per game. Since the opener, Jonathan Taylor’s workload has diminished, handling 25 total carries over the past two games while the passing game ranks bottom-10 in the league. If you need a specific facet of the game that’s been particularly costly, Indianapolis has four touchdowns on 12 red zone trips.

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings – 1 p.m. Sunday

Cleveland played its best game of the season to date in a 26-6 win over Chicago. The Browns had 418 yards in a balanced effort (203 passing, 215 rushing) and didn’t have a turnover after giving up the ball four times in two weeks. Kareem Hunt continues to be one of the best’ “backups” in football, racking up 155 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 16 touches against the Bears. The defense was just as good, sacking Justin Fields nine times, with Myles Garrett setting a franchise record with 4.5 on his own. The Browns opened as slight favorites at Minnesota this week. If you’re looking for an alternative bet, Cleveland and Minnesota have both hit the over twice.

The Vikings are in the win column after beating the Seahawks, 30-17. Minnesota’s defense deserves a lot of credit for that win. It pitched a second-half shutout, and Seattle ran four offensive plays in Vikings’ territory over the final 30 minutes. The offense continued to roll as Kirk Cousins passed for 323 and three scores. He’s completed 74 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and no interceptions in three games. Before you ask, the answer is yes. The Vikings do like that.

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints – 1 p.m. Sunday

The Saints are a difficult team to read at this point. Offensively, they still look to be figuring things out with Jameis Winston at quarterback. New Orleans has the second-worst passing attack in football, compensating for it with a top-10 run game and a top-5 scoring defense. In a 28-13 win over the Patriots, the Saints only put up 252 total yards but held New England to 300 yards and intercepted Mac Jones three times. New Orleans opened as 7.5-point favorites against the Giants. Through three games, the Saints are 0-1 when favored and 2-0 with outright wins as the underdog. We’ll see if that trend continues.

Make it back-to-back weeks with a deflating loss for the Giants, this time a 17-14 decision against the Falcons. In the fourth quarter, New York held a touchdown lead at home before conceding 130 yards and 10 points to Atlanta on its final two drives. The Giants’ defense allowed four third-down conversions on a game-tying drive that lasted almost nine minutes. But the more significant issues at hand are the loss of Blake Martinez to a torn ACL and the offense’s inability to finish drives. New York capped its two longest drives — possessions of 11 and 15 plays that ended inside Atlanta’s 15 — with field goals. Joe Judge’s team has three touchdowns in nine red-zone trips.

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets – 1 p.m. Sunday

The Titans moved to 2-1 with a 25-16 win over AFC South rival Indianapolis. The offense turning the ball over three more times is concerning, but there was more positive to take away from last week than negative. Primarily, that Derrick Henry’s second-half eruption against Seattle wasn’t a fluke. Henry ran for 113 yards and is possibly becoming a factor in the passing game, adding three catches for 31 yards. The other standout was the defense as a whole, which allowed a season-low 265 yards and 16 points. Tennessee opened as 7.5-point favorites at the Jets and has won its last two games against the spread.

New York has much bigger problems than an 0-3 record. The Jets have gone eight quarters without a touchdown, showing little to no sign of competitiveness in the past two weeks. Last week, they were shut out 26-0 by the Broncos, finishing with 162 yards and committing eight penalties. Zach Wilson threw two more interceptions, raising his total to seven on the year. New York’s defense has been fine, ranking in the league’s top half in points and yards allowed. It’s most likely worn down from a lack of rest. As long as the end zone continues to elude the Jets, they’re a viable option to bet against.

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles – 1 p.m. Sunday

If you’ve checked the standings, you’re reading them right. Granted, it’s only three games, but the Chiefs are all alone in the AFC West basem*nt at 1-2. The Chiefs lost to the Chargers last week, 30-24. Kansas City outgained Los Angeles 437-352, was better on third down and finally got the run game going with Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s third-career 100-yard game. But the Chiefs also had four turnovers, three in the first half inside the Chargers’ 40 and the final one with under two minutes to play that set up the game-winning touchdown. KC opened as 6.5-point favorites against the Eagles, its fourth straight week favored despite an 0-3 record against the spread.

Philadelphia is an underdog for the fourth consecutive week, fresh off a 41-21 loss to Dallas on Monday night. The Eagles’ defense came up with two big stops early — Fletcher Cox recovered a fumble for a touchdown, and Dak Prescott was later stuffed at the goal line on fourth-and-1. But that success wasn’t sustainable as Philadelphia gave up a season-worst 41 points and allowed 380 yards. Mistakes also proved costly last week. The Eagles committed 13 penalties, and Jalen Hurts threw two interceptions, one returned for a touchdown three plays into the second half.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams – 4:05 p.m. Sunday

The Rams won the biggest games of the year to date, beating the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers, 34-24. Matthew Stafford outdueled Tom Brady, throwing for 343 yards and four touchdowns. Los Angeles led by multiple scores for much of the second half, and its defense registered six tackles for loss, including Aaron Donald’s first-ever sack of Brady. The Rams made their statement in the NFC; now they’ll look to do the same in their division against the Cardinals. Los Angeles opened as 5.5-point favorites.

Arizona continues to quiet offseason skeptics during a 3-0 start. The Cardinals beat the Jaguars 31-19, scoring 21 unanswered points to avoid the upset. James Conner ran for a pair of touchdowns while Kyler Murray added a third, and Byron Murphy returned an interception for a score, one of four takeaways by the Arizona defense. To get to 4-0, the Cardinals will need to snap an eight-game skid against the Rams.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers – 4:05 p.m. Sunday

The 49ers are 37 seconds and one Aaron Rodgers spectacle away from still being undefeated, which is relatively impressive considering they trailed by 17 at one point. Alas, they fell 30-28 on a last-second field goal and dropped to 2-1 on the year. Jimmy Garoppolo threw two touchdown passes, an interception and lost a fumble, but the more significant concern was the lack of a ground game. San Francisco averaged 124 rushing yards in its first two games and gained just 67 against Green Bay. Trey Sermon scored his first-career touchdown, but it’s evident that the Niners operate best when they have depth at running back. Coming off the loss, San Francisco opened as 3.5- point favorites at home against the Seahawks.

Seattle is a betting underdog for the first time this season, and it comes after losing back-to-back games. The Seahawks gave up 453 yards and ran 21 fewer offensive plays in a 30-17 loss to Minnesota. To keep pace in a competitive NFC West, Seattle’s going to have to figure out its second-half troubles. In the past two games, the Seahawks have been outscored 33-6 in the second half and overtime. Against the Vikings, Seattle ran four offensive plays in Minnesota territory during the second half.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos – 4:25 p.m. Sunday

Alright, time to see how Denver looks against a team that’s not in the thick of a rebuild. Yes, the Broncos are 3-0. And here’s your not-so-gentle reminder that they’ve gone against two rookie quarterbacks, and none of their first three opponents has had a winning season since 2017. Despite the weak strength of schedule, Denver does do many things well that indicate this start is for real. Teddy Bridgewater has yet to turn the ball over this year, and the offense averages 387.3 yards per game, a significant jump from the 335.6 it was putting up in 2020. And then there’s the defense, which has allowed 26 total points and ranks top-3 against the run and pass. We’ll learn a lot more about the Broncos against the Ravens. Denver opened as a 1.5-point favorite and now the Ravens are favored by a point on the road.

Baltimore is 0-2 against the spread when favored while winning outright in its first game as the underdog. The Ravens start +1.5 against Denver after barely squeaking by the Lions a week ago. Baltimore led by 13 points yet found itself trailing by one with 1:05 to play. Lamar Jackson kept the game alive with a conversion on fourth-and-19 to set up Justin Tucker, who broke the NFL record with a game-winning, 66-yard field goal. While the Ravens won, it was the second time they fell apart in the fourth quarter in three weeks.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers – 4:25 p.m. Sunday

Since getting throttled in their opener, the Packers have looked like themselves in the two weeks since. Green Bay moved to 2-1 with a 30-28 win over the 49ers, punctuated by Aaron Rodgers marching 42 yards in 34 seconds to set Mason Crosby up for a game-winning kick. The Packers’ total yardage has improved each week, and they haven’t turned the ball over in two games. Meanwhile, their defense has come up with four takeaways in that time. Green Bay opened as 7.5-point favorites over the Steelers, winning its last two games straight up and against the spread.

Pittsburgh won its opener over Buffalo but has looked like a different team since. And it’s not for the better. The Steelers have dropped back-to-back games to the Raiders and Bengals. T.J. Watt was sorely missed after Pittsburgh didn’t record a single sack against Cincinnati. The offense struggled even more last week, scoring just 10 points. In part, Pittsburgh’s offense has been a mess due to a rushing attack averaging 53 yards per game. It doesn’t help that Ben Roethlisberger’s on track to set a career-high in passing attempts at 39 years old.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots – 8:20 p.m. Sunday

The Buccaneers lost last week for the first time since November 2020. Now Tom Brady gets to make his long-awaited return to Foxborough. Brady’s Bucs are 2-1 and in possession of the NFL’s top-scoring offense, as well as a top-5 run defense. Unlike last year, Tampa has a more apparent Achilles’ heel in its pass defense, which ranks 31st in allowing 349.7 passing yards per game. That was especially evident during a 34-24 loss to the Rams. But perhaps the Bucs can get their secondary in order against Mac Jones, who has struggled with deep and intermediate passes in his first few starts. Tampa opened as a 5.5-point favorite on the road.

For the first time, New England is the underdog in four games and coming off a 28-13 loss to the Saints. The Patriots fell behind 14-3 at the half before Mac Jones opened the third quarter with an interception returned for a touchdown. Jones threw three interceptions last week and attempted 51 passes, most of which came after New England abandoned the run game. Tampa’s defensive line could make it a long night for Jones. If he has time to throw, he could turn things around against the weakest pass defense he’s seen so far.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers – 8:15 p.m. Monday

Last week, the Chargers improved to 2-1 with a 30-24 road win at the Chiefs. Alohi Gilman intercepted Patrick Mahomes with 1:55 to play, and Justin Herbert connected with Mike Williams on the go-ahead touchdown with 32 seconds remaining. Herbert threw four touchdown passes in the win. Mahomes was intercepted twice for two of the Chargers’ four takeaways. Los Angeles is 1-0 in its division for the first time since 2014 and won outright for the second time this year as an underdog. The Chargers opened as three-point favorites against the Raiders.

Las Vegas is one of five unbeaten teams left after three weeks. The Raiders got to 3-0 with a 31-28 overtime win over the Dolphins. Derek Carr topped 380 yards passing for the third consecutive game and seems like a good bet to lead the league in passing this year. The bigger surprise was Peyton Barber, who ran for 111 yards and a touchdown in Josh Jacobs’ absence. Whether it’s Barber, Jacobs or Kenyan Drake next week, Las Vegas has options against a Chargers defense that ranks dead-last against the run.

Cinncinati Bengals 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 21